A new poll puts Cindy Hyde-Smith up just 3 in Mississippi. Will its Senate race be decided by under 6 points on Nov 3?

Mississippi's 2026 U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom became one of the closest statewide contests in the state's modern history, resolving the question of a sub-6-point margin as true. With about 95.6% of the expected vote counted, unofficial returns reported by Jackson television station WLBT showed Colom leading Hyde-Smith by just 1,138 votes, 464,926 (49.0%) to 463,788 (48.9%), with independent Ty Pinkins taking 19,934 votes (2.1%). The gap between the top two candidates was a fraction of one percentage point, far inside the 6-point threshold this question asked about.

The tightness marked a sharp break from Hyde-Smith's past statewide performances; she defeated Colom's Democratic predecessor, Mike Espy, by roughly 10 points in 2020. Pre-election forecasters, including Silver Bulletin and Split Ticket, had rated the race Solid or Safe Republican, and a Kalshi prediction market had put Hyde-Smith's odds at 88% to win days before the election, making the closeness one of the midterms' sharper departures from expectations.

The community correctly anticipated a close finish, with 70% predicting the race would be decided by under 6 points, matching the outcome.