October 3, 2026

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Ratepayer Protection Act on Sept. 30 in a 57-43 vote, short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. The bill, sponsored by Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, would have let state utility regulators require data centers and other large electricity users to bear more of the infrastructure costs tied to their power demand, following the House's 417-3 passage of its version in September.

Four Democrats — Amy Klobuchar, Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock and Maggie Hassan — crossed over to support advancing the measure, but most Senate Democrats opposed it, arguing the bill made ratepayer protections optional rather than mandatory and did not go far enough to shield households from data center-driven cost increases. Republicans countered that Democrats had blocked a bipartisan, House-passed response to rising electricity bills tied to the AI buildout.

The bill's failure left the existing regulatory patchwork in place, under which individual states decide how to allocate the costs of power infrastructure built to serve data centers, rather than setting a federal requirement.

Sixty-nine percent of Predict Six forecasters expected Senate passage by Oct. 2. The bill's failure to clear the 60-vote threshold means the community got this one wrong.

U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, issued a temporary order on Sept. 24 requiring the White House to restore hard-pass credentials for CNN, MS NOW and Politico journalists after the administration revoked them over what it called a failure to meet "minimum requirements of professionalism." Rather than filing a formal appeal of that order with a federal appeals court by Oct. 2, the Justice Department instead went back to Kelly's own district court, filing papers that day arguing White House access is a "privilege" rather than a constitutional right and renewing its claim that the outlets had published classified information.

By seeking reconsideration from the same judge rather than escalating to the D.C. Circuit, the administration kept the dispute within the trial court where the case originated, avoiding the longer timeline and different legal standard an appellate challenge would have required. The outlets' credentials remained restored under Kelly's order as the administration's request to lift it was pending.

Thirty-six percent of Predict Six forecasters expected a formal appeal by Oct. 2. The majority correctly anticipated the administration would not take that specific procedural step, even as it kept contesting the order through other means.

President Trump held a midterm rally at the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, on Oct. 2, drawing a crowd estimated at roughly 8,000 supporters. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for Alabama governor, Sen. Katie Britt, and former Rep. Jerry Carl, the GOP nominee for Alabama's 1st Congressional District, appeared alongside him.

Trump spoke for about 70 minutes, highlighting a $3 billion federal commitment to an Interstate 10 corridor and bridge project connecting Mobile and the Eastern Shore, which he called the largest infrastructure project in Alabama's history. He urged the crowd to "pretend I'm on the ballot" in the November midterms, even though he is not a candidate, and criticized Democrats on immigration, taxes and economic policy.

The rally proceeded despite Alabama's deep-red lean, even as national Republican resources were more heavily focused on competitive midterm contests in Texas and Alaska. Trump has used similar stops in safely Republican states to rally turnout and energize candidates in down-ballot races rather than to persuade swing voters.

Eighty-two percent of Predict Six forecasters correctly predicted Trump would hold the rally as scheduled.

A group of Vietnam War veterans and an architectural historian, represented by the nonprofit Public Citizen, sued to block construction of President Trump's planned 250-foot arch near Arlington National Cemetery, which Trump said would double as a "military complex" housing drones, snipers and ammunition. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan declined to issue a preliminary injunction halting the project outright. Instead, after the administration said it planned to dig archaeological test pits rather than begin full construction, she ordered officials to give 48 hours' notice before any activity on the Memorial Circle site.

When the Justice Department later asked Chutkan to dissolve that notice requirement, arguing it had interfered with routine park operations, she refused, saying there was "little doubt" about what her order meant. But that order stopped short of a block on the arch itself, and no court issued a ruling halting the project by Oct. 2. The underlying lawsuit over whether Trump has authority to build the arch without congressional approval remains pending.

Sixty-four percent of Predict Six forecasters expected a judge to block the project outright by the deadline. The narrower procedural order requiring advance notice fell short of that, so the community got this one wrong.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 2 that U.S. unemployment rose to 4.2% in September, up from the 4.1% one-year low recorded in August. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000, far short of the 84,000 economists had forecast. The agency also revised prior months sharply lower: August's gain was cut to 133,000, and July flipped from a reported gain into a loss of 10,000, a combined 60,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated.

The uptick in unemployment was driven partly by more people entering the labor force: the labor force grew by 485,000 and the participation rate rose to 61.8%, its highest since May. Wage growth slowed as well, with average hourly earnings up just 0.1% from August and 3% year-over-year, the weakest annual pace since 2021.

Taken together, the report pointed to a labor market losing momentum heading into the fourth quarter, with weak hiring and downward revisions outweighing the modest labor-force growth. A 44% share of Predict Six forecasters expected the rate to climb above 4.1%; the majority bet it would hold steady or fall, so the community got this one wrong.

Boeing shares fell to about $184 in late September after the Federal Aviation Administration paused certification of the 737 Max 10 over a software issue discovered during testing, clouding the jet's delivery timeline. The stock recovered within days. On Sept. 29, the U.S. Navy awarded Boeing a roughly $20 billion contract to develop the F/A-XX, its next-generation carrier-based fighter jet, beating out Northrop Grumman for the program. Boeing shares, which closed at $187.68 that day, kept climbing and closed at $193.56 on Oct. 2, clearing the $190 threshold.

The defense win offset investor concern about the Max 10 delay because the fighter contract represents a long-term revenue stream largely insulated from the commercial-jet certification process. Boeing's defense unit has now secured both the Air Force's F-47 contract in 2025 and the Navy's F/A-XX award, giving the company visibility into fighter production into the 2030s even as its commercial side navigates renewed regulatory scrutiny.

Most Predict Six forecasters expected the stock to stay below $190, with only 42% predicting yes. The Navy contract announcement outweighed the FAA setback, and Boeing closed comfortably above that level, so the community got this one wrong.