U.S. unemployment held at 4.1% in August, a one-year low. Will the Oct 2 jobs report put it above 4.1%?
56% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 9 predictions cast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 2 that U.S. unemployment rose to 4.2% in September, up from the 4.1% one-year low recorded in August. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000, far short of the 84,000 economists had forecast. The agency also revised prior months sharply lower: August's gain was cut to 133,000, and July flipped from a reported gain into a loss of 10,000, a combined 60,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated.
The uptick in unemployment was driven partly by more people entering the labor force: the labor force grew by 485,000 and the participation rate rose to 61.8%, its highest since May. Wage growth slowed as well, with average hourly earnings up just 0.1% from August and 3% year-over-year, the weakest annual pace since 2021.
Taken together, the report pointed to a labor market losing momentum heading into the fourth quarter, with weak hiring and downward revisions outweighing the modest labor-force growth. A 44% share of Predict Six forecasters expected the rate to climb above 4.1%; the majority bet it would hold steady or fall, so the community got this one wrong.