Both keep score. They ask for very different amounts of you.
Metaculus and Good Judgment Open are the serious end of forecasting. Long horizons, probabilistic answers, Brier scores, calibration curves — real intellectual work, and the community around them is excellent at it. If you want to become a measurably better forecaster, they are the right places to go.
Predict Six is the daily version. Six yes/no questions, two minutes, resolved this evening, with a friend on the other side of it. It keeps score honestly — accuracy by category, streaks, ranks — but it is a game, and it is built for the days you have two minutes rather than an afternoon.
| Predict Six | Metaculus / Good Judgment | |
|---|---|---|
| Answer format | Yes or no. You commit. | A probability, updatable as evidence arrives. |
| Time per session | About two minutes, once a day. | As long as the research takes. |
| Horizon | Most questions resolve the same evening; some in days. | Months to years. |
| Scoring | Correct calls, accuracy by category, streaks, ranks. | Brier / log scores and calibration. |
| Social shape | A weekly head-to-head against someone you know. | A leaderboard of strangers, plus comment threads. |
| Barrier | None. Free, no account needed to start. | Free, but the format rewards research and expertise. |
| What it's really for | A daily habit, and beating your friend. | Becoming a genuinely better forecaster. |
Honestly: both, for different reasons. If you want a calibration score you could put on a CV, that's Metaculus, not us. If the reason you've never stuck with a forecasting platform is that it felt like homework, Predict Six is the version that fits into a coffee queue — and the accuracy record it builds is real, just measured on a shorter clock.
It's rigorous about the thing it measures. Every question resolves against a documented real-world outcome, and every verdict is published with the reasoning. What it doesn't do is ask for a probability — a yes/no forces a commitment, which is the point of a game and the limitation of one. We publish the crowd's collective accuracy weekly as the Predict Six Index.
Play today's six free →Real questions the game has already settled — every one resolved against what actually happened.
Why each one resolved the way it did →
How it compares to prediction markets · What the daily game is · Glossary · FAQ