91% of you thought Messi would get a goal or an assist in the World Cup Final. He barely got a shot off.
Spain won 1-0 in extra time — Ferran Torres in the 106th minute — and Argentina never once put a shot on target.
I watched the buildup like everyone else. Every preview was some version of "Messi's last dance," Argentina had scored more goals than anyone left in the tournament, and the algorithms gave Spain only a slight edge. So naturally we all bought the story: a shootout, a hero, a final chapter. What actually showed up was Spain holding the ball for two-thirds of the match and starving Argentina of anything to shoot with. Not a shootout. A siege. We were so busy watching for the legend that we missed the terrain — Spain wasn't trying to out-duel Messi, they were trying to make sure the duel never happened. Nature doesn't care about your narrative arc either. A drought doesn't wait for the harvest story to finish.
Three of this week's biggest misses came out of that same ninety-plus minutes — the scoreline, the shutout, the extra time nobody wanted — which tells you something. When a crowd is wrong, it's rarely wrong about one detail. It's wrong about the shape of the story it walked in expecting.
Meanwhile, 73% of you figured New Home Sales would come in soft in June. They landed at 628,000 — a beat, not a miss.
Here's the part I'll admit sheepishly: even the sourcing on this one got tangled. Pending home sales (a different, weaker report) had just come in soft days earlier, and it's an easy two reports to mash together in your head if you're not staring at the fine print. Builders leaned hard into incentives and price cuts to move inventory, propping up a number that, on the surface, argues the housing market is fine. It isn't, particularly — sales are still down over the year, and the "beat" is a discount dressed up as demand. But the headline reads as good news, and good news is contagious even when it's borrowed.
If a newsletter about being wrong can get a little wrong sourcing its own research, maybe go easy on yourselves too.
New questions are up. Try not to fall for the story this time — or if you do, at least enjoy it.
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Will the Paramount/Warner merger be back on track after 2 week pause ordered by the court? → No
- Will Olive Garden share its position on voting rights b4 Fri, now that all-you-can-eat pasta is political? → No
- Will Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' open with $250mm+ in worldwide box office sales this weekend? → Yes
- New Rolling Stones album drops today. Will it top the Billboard 200 after its first week? → No
Discovery
Markets
- Will Intel delight investors with a big beat on quarterly earnings when they report on 7/23? → Yes
- Will the ave US price for a gallon of regular gasoline end Friday above $4.20? $4.02 now. → No
- With the tech & AI momentum, will the NASDAQ, now just around 26,000, close the week above 27,000? → No
- Will Tesla shares rise the day after they report earnings on Wed, 7/22? → No
- Will New Home Sales in June fall short of expected 600,000 units when reported on Friday? → No
- Big Tech results start next week. Will Alphabet beat on both revenue & earnings? → Yes
- With SpaceX now below its IPO price, will there be a 'dead rocket' bounce to finish higher next week? → No
Politics
- Will the RCP poll of independent voters show their disapproval of Trump at 70%+ by July 21? 67% now. → No
- With Platner's departure, will a woman be chosen as D Senate candidate to run against Susan Collins? → No
Sports
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will Golden Boot (most goals) winner score at least 10 goals? Messi has 5! → Yes
- With tensions running high in the WNBA, will there be an actual fight in a game before 7/26? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Weather could be an issue in NJ for final! Will T-storms delay/interrupt the game? → No
- Will we know by July 24th where LeBron will be playing next year? → Yes
- Tough course, benign weather for this week's British Open! Will the winning score be 10 under or lower? → Yes
- WORLD CUP FINALS: Will Spain's smothering defense hold Argentina scoreless in the first half of play? → Yes
- Will a Brit, Scot, or Irishman win The Open Championship this week? → No
- WORLD CUP FINALS: Will the victor come from behind by at least one goal to win the match? → No
- WORLD CUP FINALS: Regardless of who wins, will both team score at least one goal, excl penalty shootout? → No
- WORLD CUP FINALS: With Golden Boot still on the line, will Messi get a goal or an assist against Spain? → No
- WORLD CUP FINALS: Will Argentina defeat Spain to repeat as World Cup Champions? → No
- WORLD CUP FINALS: It's a long shot, but will match be decided in either extra time or penalty shootout? → Yes
- Will Tour de France leader Pogačar have his commanding 4 1/2 min lead cut in half after Alps stages? → No
- Will someone come from 3 or more strokes behind on Sun to win the British Open? Two 62's on Friday!! → No
World
- Will Trump announce even higher global tariffs before his temporary tariffs expire this Friday? → Yes
- Will Trump/Rubio agree to the extradition of the Tate bros' back to UK before the end of July? → Yes
- Will subpoenas against NYT's journalists over security issues with QatarForceOne be squashed in July? → Yes
- Will more folks be named by 7/24 in the teleprompter-Kalshi cheat? → No
- Will Mamdani order the arrest of Netanyahu before the end of July? For real, he's considering!! → No
- Will lawyers for David Hearn in Reflecting Pool case file a Motion to Dismiss before the end of July? → Yes