Will the RCP poll of independent voters show their disapproval of Trump at 70%+ by July 21? 67% now.
53% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 36 predictions cast.
This question asked whether RealClearPolling's (RCP) average of Donald Trump's disapproval rating among independent voters would rise from 67% to 70% or higher by July 21, 2026. It did not: RCP's independent-approval average continued to show disapproval in the mid-to-upper 60s through the resolution date, short of the 70% threshold.
Independent support for Trump has trended downward through his second term. AP-NORC polling found warm views of Trump among independents falling from roughly 48% before he returned to office to about one-quarter by mid-2026, a decline pollsters have linked to economic concerns such as inflation and tariff-driven prices, alongside foreign-policy flashpoints including the Iran ceasefire dispute and the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Individual surveys varied noticeably in this period, with independent disapproval readings ranging from the low 60s to upper 60s depending on methodology and sample.
The Predict Six community leaned narrowly toward 'no' on the 70% threshold, with 53% not expecting the spike, aligning with the actual outcome.