October 8, 2026

Flydubai did not fly a scheduled flight into Ben Gurion Airport on October 7, as Israeli officials continued to block the airline's return following a September 30 cockpit attack. On flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv, the co-pilot assaulted the captain in what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called an attempt to crash the jet; the crew retained control and diverted the aircraft to Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev ordered a halt to flydubai's Israel flights days later, citing a violation of the bilateral aviation agreement requiring pilots on Israel-bound flights to hold citizenship of a country with diplomatic ties to Israel; the co-pilot was reportedly Omani, and Oman does not have such ties. According to Israeli broadcaster Channel 13, relayed by the Times of Israel, flydubai asked Israel for permission to resume flights around October 7, saying its internal investigation had concluded and that implicated employees had been dismissed, but Regev declined the request. Israeli officials have since discussed inspecting flydubai's Dubai operations and drafting new vetting rules for non-Israeli crew before any resumption.

Predict Six's community leaned toward a no, with 46% predicting flydubai would resume service by October 7. The majority called this one correctly.

Ken Paxton did not debate James Talarico on October 6, continuing a pattern in which the Republican Senate nominee declined to commit to any of the debates Talarico's campaign had accepted. The Texas Tribune reported on October 7 that most Texas Republicans, including Paxton and Governor Greg Abbott, were ignoring Democratic opponents' debate challenges altogether, with Texas potentially heading toward its first U.S. Senate race without a debate in roughly a quarter century. Talarico had accepted invitations from multiple outlets, including a forum moderated by Fox News's Bret Baier that the network agreed to host, but Paxton's campaign stopped responding to scheduling requests from station organizers, including Dallas's WFAA, which had proposed the October 6 date. Paxton has never debated an opponent in any of his statewide campaigns, including his three runs for Texas attorney general. President Trump publicly weighed in on the standoff, pressing Talarico over his opponent's absence from the debate stage.

Predict Six's community correctly anticipated this outcome, with only 38% predicting Paxton would show up. The low expectation held: the "must-watch" debate Paxton promised back in July never materialized.

PepsiCo reported core earnings per share of $2.34 for the third quarter of 2026 on October 8, up 2% from a year earlier and above the $2.30 threshold in question. Net revenue rose 5.6% to roughly $25.3 billion, helped in part by the chip-price increases PepsiCo reinstated this quarter after cutting prices on some Frito-Lay products back in February to combat slowing snack volumes. Core operating profit climbed 3% to about $4.28 billion even as core operating margin narrowed slightly. Despite the beat, PepsiCo cut its full-year outlook, now projecting core EPS growth of just 2.5% to 3.5% for fiscal 2026, down from its earlier target of 5% to 7%, citing continued pressure on its North American business. CEO Ramon Laguarta pointed to additional structural cost-reduction actions being identified to shore up performance in the coming months.

Predict Six's community leaned against a beat, with only 44% predicting yes heading into the report. The outcome went against the majority: PepsiCo cleared the $2.30 bar on its core EPS figure, even as the weaker full-year guidance tempered the market's reaction to the print.

No terrorism charge had been filed against anyone in the RAF Fairford investigation as of October 7, even as the case grew to seven arrests. Five British men in their 20s were first detained near the Gloucestershire airbase, which hosts U.S. bombers tied to the Iran war, on September 27 on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act; all were released on bail without charge. A sixth suspect, a dual UK-Iranian national, was arrested in London on October 1, and a seventh man, 22, was arrested in Westminster on October 6, also on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Counter Terrorism Policing has repeatedly described the case as a "live investigation" pursuing "multiple lines of enquiry," with no charging decision announced. Investigators said petrol was found in vehicles linked to the suspects but no explosives, and officials have raised the possibility of foreign state involvement; Iran has denied any connection and summoned the British ambassador in protest.

Predict Six's community leaned heavily toward a charge, with 90% predicting yes. That expectation did not hold: by the resolution date every suspect arrested in the case remained on bail rather than charged, making this one of the more lopsided misses among this week's resolved questions.

The Swedish Academy awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature to Canadian poet and essayist Anne Carson on October 8, adding to a list that has gone to a woman only 18 of 121 previous times. Carson, 76, was cited for a "bold and inventive oeuvre that, in playful dialogue with the classical tradition, has created new forms for contemporary literature." Born in Toronto, she has also held Icelandic citizenship since 2022 and divides her time between Canada and Iceland. She is known for blending poetry, essay and classical translation, in works including "Autobiography of Red," a novel in verse drawing on a fragmented Greek myth, and "The Beauty of the Husband," a narrative poem told in 29 tangos. The Academy's permanent secretary, Ingrid Carlberg, said Carson was "very taken by surprise" by the announcement. The prize carries a cash award of 12 million Swedish crowns, about $1.2 million, with a formal ceremony set for Stockholm on December 10.

Predict Six's community was split heading into the announcement, with exactly 50% predicting a woman would win. The result landed as a coin flip for forecasters, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the field rather than a clear community call in either direction.