Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford, the English base U.S. bombers fly from in the Iran war, on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. Will any of them be charged with a terrorism offence by Oct 7?
90% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 10 predictions cast.
No terrorism charge had been filed against anyone in the RAF Fairford investigation as of October 7, even as the case grew to seven arrests. Five British men in their 20s were first detained near the Gloucestershire airbase, which hosts U.S. bombers tied to the Iran war, on September 27 on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act; all were released on bail without charge. A sixth suspect, a dual UK-Iranian national, was arrested in London on October 1, and a seventh man, 22, was arrested in Westminster on October 6, also on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Counter Terrorism Policing has repeatedly described the case as a "live investigation" pursuing "multiple lines of enquiry," with no charging decision announced. Investigators said petrol was found in vehicles linked to the suspects but no explosives, and officials have raised the possibility of foreign state involvement; Iran has denied any connection and summoned the British ambassador in protest.
Predict Six's community leaned heavily toward a charge, with 90% predicting yes. That expectation did not hold: by the resolution date every suspect arrested in the case remained on bail rather than charged, making this one of the more lopsided misses among this week's resolved questions.