August 29, 2026

Brent crude oil climbed back above $95 a barrel in the third week of August 2026, closing at $95.40 on August 20 and $95.29 on August 21, according to Fortune's daily oil-price tracking. The rally came after Brent had settled near $88.31 when a ceasefire covering the Strait of Hormuz lapsed, reviving fears that renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities could choke off tanker traffic through a corridor that carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply. Prices retreated in the following days as traders increasingly viewed the standoff as a sanctions and diplomatic confrontation rather than an immediate threat to physical crude flows, with Brent settling back into the high $80s by late August. Even so, the brief close above $95 in the window before August 26 was enough to resolve the question, since it asked only whether crude would close above that threshold at any point in the window, not whether the level would hold.

The prediction market's community leaned against this outcome, with just 33 percent forecasting yes, underestimating how much the Hormuz-related supply fears would move prices even briefly. The community's answer proved wrong.

Patrick Mahomes did not play in the Kansas City Chiefs' preseason finale against the Seattle Seahawks on August 26, 2026, marking the first time in his career he sat out an entire preseason slate. Head coach Andy Reid instead started seventh-round rookie Garrett Nussmeier, who took the bulk of the snaps. Mahomes is working back from a torn ACL suffered on December 14, 2025, and while he participated fully in offseason workouts and training camp, the team had signaled throughout August that he would not appear in any of the three preseason games as a precaution. Coaches and medical staff opted to protect the two-time MVP rather than risk a setback in games that carried no bearing on the regular season. Mahomes's first game action since the injury is expected to come in the regular-season opener against the Denver Broncos.

The prediction market's community anticipated this outcome, with just 28 percent forecasting that Mahomes would take a snap before August 29, correctly reading the Chiefs' cautious approach to his recovery. The community got this one right.

President Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced in mid-August 2026 that she would step down at the end of the month to spend more time with her family. Trump publicly confirmed her departure on August 12, and speculation quickly centered on candidates including principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly, former Trump attorney Alina Habba, and adviser Jason Miller. Despite that speculation, the White House did not name a successor before Leavitt's exit. Administration officials told NBC News that Trump was in no hurry to fill the role and intended to wait until after the November midterm elections to make a permanent pick, citing the sensitivity of installing a new messenger so close to the vote. In the interim, officials including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were expected to periodically fill in at the podium.

The prediction market's community strongly expected a new press secretary to be named before August 29, with 96 percent forecasting yes. The administration's decision to delay the appointment left the community badly misjudging the timeline; the outcome resolved no.