August 18, 2026

4 resolutions on this day.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Markets Resolved NO

June housing starts jumped 19% to 1.43 million. Will July's Aug 18 report hold above 1.35 million?

Community missed this one โ€” 100% predicted YES.

U.S. housing starts fell 12.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million units, the Commerce Department reported Aug. 18, coming in well below both the 1.35 million economists polled by Reuters had expected and June's revised 1.415 million pace. The figure marked a sharp reversal from June's 19% jump.

Single-family starts, which make up the bulk of new construction, dropped 9.9% from June to a rate of 808,000, down 15.7% from a year earlier. Multifamily starts fell 16.8% to an annualized 431,000 pace. Elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs, labor shortages and a glut of unsold new homes weighed on builders, according to Reuters. Building permits, a forward-looking indicator, rose 5% to 1.443 million, suggesting some future activity even as starts pulled back.

The decline reflected broad regional weakness, with the Northeast posting the steepest drop at 27.1%, followed by the West at 13.8%.

The community got this one wrong: both recorded votes predicted starts would hold above 1.35 million, but the actual reading came in well under that threshold.

๐ŸŒ World Resolved YES

Will Hakainde Hichilema win Zambia's presidency outright in the Aug 13 first round?

Community missed this one โ€” 100% predicted NO.

Zambia's Electoral Commission declared incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema the winner of an outright first-round victory in the country's Aug. 13 general election, announcing final results Aug. 17-18. Hichilema won roughly 61.4% of the vote, about 2.97 million ballots, against 38% for main challenger Brian Mundubile, according to Al Jazeera and The Washington Post.

The win secures Hichilema a second five-year term without a runoff, since he cleared the majority threshold required under Zambian law. It was his seventh run for the presidency, following his first election win in 2021.

The count itself was contested: tabulation was briefly suspended amid violence at some polling stations, and opposition officials were arrested during a law enforcement raid in which gunshots were fired, according to reporting on the results. Mundubile's camp raised concerns about the conduct of the vote even as the commission proceeded to certify Hichilema's win.

The community got this one wrong: with a single vote recorded, predictors put the odds of an outright first-round win at 0%, well off the eventual result.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Markets Resolved YES

Wall Street sees $4.71 a share. Will Home Depot beat that when it reports Aug 18?

56% of users predicted YES โ€” community got this one right.

Home Depot reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.92 per share on Aug. 18, beating the $4.71 Wall Street consensus by 21 cents. Revenue rose 5.7% year-over-year to $47.86 billion, topping the $47.23 billion analysts had projected, according to Yahoo Finance and Investing.com coverage of the results.

Comparable sales increased 1.7% company-wide and 1.3% in the U.S., as customers continued smaller renovation projects even as the company described the broader housing market as "frozen." Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted diluted earnings-per-share growth of flat to 4% from $14.69 in fiscal 2025. Shares rose roughly 1.7% to 2% in premarket trading following the release.

The beat came despite continued pressure from tariffs and a slow housing market that has curbed big-ticket renovation spending, with the company leaning on professional contractors and smaller repair jobs to offset weaker large-project demand.

The community correctly anticipated the outcome, with 56% of 25 voters predicting Home Depot would beat the $4.71 estimate.

๐ŸŽฌ Culture Resolved NO

Will Ariana Grande's 'petal' hold No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart dated Aug 22?

Community missed this one โ€” 52% predicted YES.

Ariana Grande's "petal" fell to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 chart dated Aug. 22, unseated after one week atop the chart. Stray Kids' "THIS & THAT" debuted at No. 1 instead, earning about 369,000 equivalent album units in the tracking week ending Aug. 13, according to Luminate data reported by Billboard. "petal" earned roughly 82,000 units in its second week, a 72% drop from its debut frame.

The result gave the South Korean group its ninth consecutive No. 1 debut, making Stray Kids the first act in Billboard 200 history to open all nine of its charting releases at No. 1, a streak that began with "ODDINARY" in 2022.

The community leaned toward "petal" holding the top spot, with 52% of 27 voters predicting yes -- a narrow margin that landed on the wrong side of the outcome. The result reflects a familiar pattern on the albums chart: a high-profile debut week frequently gives way the following week to a competing release backed by a dedicated fan base with a strong track record of chart-topping first-week sales, as was the case with Stray Kids.