June housing starts jumped 19% to 1.43 million. Will July's Aug 18 report hold above 1.35 million?

U.S. housing starts fell 12.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million units, the Commerce Department reported Aug. 18, coming in well below both the 1.35 million economists polled by Reuters had expected and June's revised 1.415 million pace. The figure marked a sharp reversal from June's 19% jump.

Single-family starts, which make up the bulk of new construction, dropped 9.9% from June to a rate of 808,000, down 15.7% from a year earlier. Multifamily starts fell 16.8% to an annualized 431,000 pace. Elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs, labor shortages and a glut of unsold new homes weighed on builders, according to Reuters. Building permits, a forward-looking indicator, rose 5% to 1.443 million, suggesting some future activity even as starts pulled back.

The decline reflected broad regional weakness, with the Northeast posting the steepest drop at 27.1%, followed by the West at 13.8%.

The community got this one wrong: both recorded votes predicted starts would hold above 1.35 million, but the actual reading came in well under that threshold.