No one has ever brought home a piece of a Martian moon. Will Japan's MMX lift off for Phobos by Oct 20?

Japan's space agency JAXA launched its Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) spacecraft atop an H3-24L rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center at 4:41 a.m. local time on Oct. 20, 2026 (the evening of Oct. 19 in the US). The liftoff sends MMX toward Phobos, the larger of Mars's two moons, where the probe is designed to collect at least 10 grams of surface material from a depth of two centimeters or more and return it to Earth, a sample-return feat no nation has previously attempted at a Martian moon. JAXA had originally targeted a 2024 launch but delayed the mission after the H3 rocket failed on its debut flight in 2023; the rocket has since flown successfully. MMX is expected to reach Mars orbit around August 2027 and begin studying Phobos the following month. A French-German rover named IDEFIX will be deployed onto the moon's surface, and the sample-return capsule is slated to land in Woomera, Australia, in 2031. The mission aims to help scientists determine whether Phobos is a captured asteroid or debris from an ancient impact on Mars. The community leaned correctly here, with 55 percent predicting a liftoff by the deadline, matching the actual outcome.