Will Retail Sales grow in May over April's level in spite of economic headwinds? Report out on 6/17.
53% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 34 predictions cast.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported on June 17, 2026, that retail and food services sales rose 0.9 percent in May to $763.7 billion, nearly doubling the 0.5 percent gain economists had forecast. Sales were up 6.9 percent year over year, with nonstore retailers leading at 12.2 percent above May 2025 levels.
The stronger-than-expected result reflected continued consumer spending resilience despite rising prices. Gasoline stations posted a 3.4 percent monthly increase, a figure heavily influenced by elevated fuel prices tied to the Iran conflict and the Hormuz disruption. The core control group — which excludes food services, autos, building materials, and gas stations and feeds directly into GDP calculations — rose 0.7 percent.
The report landed against a backdrop of elevated household financial anxiety: the New York Fed’s June survey showed consumer financial worries near their highest level since 2022. The National Retail Federation described May’s data as reflecting a “reasonably healthy consumer.” Community sentiment on this question was nearly split at 47 percent yes; the majority predicted no growth and was wrong — the actual result cleared expectations by a wide margin.