Iowa's Senate seat is open and Ashley Hinson led Josh Turek 47-45 in October. Will she hold it for Republicans on Nov 3?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 0 predictions cast.
Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, with the Associated Press calling the contest for Turek at 10:35 p.m. on Nov. 3, 2026. Hinson, who had led Turek 47-45 in an October poll, did not hold the seat for Republicans. With nearly all precincts reporting, Turek led roughly 50.5% to 46.4%, with Libertarian Thomas Laehn drawing about 3%. Turek, a state representative and former Paralympic swimmer, will succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
The result reversed Hinson's earlier polling edge. National Democratic momentum in the 2026 midterms, concerns over affordability and health care costs, and a late swing among independent voters contributed to Turek's win in a state Donald Trump carried twice. Turek becomes the first Iowa Democrat to hold a Senate seat since Tom Harkin retired in 2015; Iowa had not elected a Democratic senator since 2008.
The community's forecast leaned correctly: with only 44% predicting "yes" that Hinson would hold the seat, a majority of bettors anticipated the eventual Democratic flip. In her concession, Hinson said she and Turek "disagree on a lot" but hoped to find common ground. The win was one of several Senate pickups that helped Democrats retake majority control of the chamber in the 2026 midterms.