Datafolha's last first-round poll had Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%. Can he clear 40% in Brazil's Oct 4 vote?
63% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 8 predictions cast.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won approximately 47% of the vote in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on October 4, 2026, clearing the 40% threshold and outperforming Datafolha's final pre-election poll, which had placed him at 36%. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva finished second with about 45%, according to Brazil's electoral court (TSE), which confirmed with more than 99% of votes counted that neither candidate secured the outright majority needed to avoid a runoff. The two will face off again on October 25.
Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing surprised pollsters: private surveys heading into the vote had forecast Lula leading the first round by roughly three percentage points, making Bolsonaro's lead a reversal of the late polling trend. Analysts pointed to stronger-than-anticipated turnout for the Brazilian right in regions outside Bolsonaro's traditional base.
The Predict Six community correctly anticipated Bolsonaro clearing 40%, with 63% predicting yes. The result sets up a tightly contested three-week runoff campaign between Brazil's sitting leftist president and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, continuing the polarization that has defined Brazilian politics since 2022.