Will Minnesota's DFL Senate primary be decided by fewer than 5 points on Aug 11?
100% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 1 predictions cast.
Peggy Flanagan defeated Angie Craig in Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, winning roughly 58.8 percent to 39.7 percent, a margin of about 19 points. The result was well outside the five-point threshold this question asked about.
Flanagan, Minnesota's lieutenant governor, consolidated support from the DFL's progressive wing and built momentum in the campaign's closing weeks, translating into a decisive turnout advantage on primary day. Craig, a U.S. representative who had positioned herself as a more centrist alternative, was unable to close the gap despite a competitive early campaign.
The primary was among the most closely watched Senate contests of the 2026 cycle in Minnesota, with the winner advancing to the general election for the seat. Pre-election polling and reporting had characterized the race as competitive, but the final result showed a wide separation between the top two candidates rather than a narrow finish.
The Predict Six community correctly forecast this outcome, with a 0 percent yes probability recorded on a single vote, correctly anticipating that the margin would not fall under five points.
Sources: NBC News, "Minnesota Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results," August 11, 2026; Axios, "Peggy Flanagan wins Democratic primary for Minnesota U.S. Senate seat," August 12, 2026.