Will US Trade Deficit on Tues exceed the estimate of $55B? Wait, weren't tariffs supposed to...???
62% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 34 predictions cast.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released April 2026 trade data on June 9, reporting a goods and services deficit of $55.9 billion — above the $55 billion estimate cited in the question and confirming a YES resolution. The figure represented a modest improvement from a revised $56.6 billion deficit in March, driven in part by record-high U.S. goods and services exports of $327.1 billion in April.
Imports also rose, however, increasing by $7.6 billion month-over-month to $383.0 billion, keeping the overall deficit elevated. On a year-to-date basis, the trade gap has narrowed approximately 49 percent relative to the same period in 2025, a shift the BEA attributed largely to the front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs implemented earlier in the year. Even so, the April figure came in above the $55 billion threshold, consistent with the view that tariff policy has not yet produced a structural reduction in the monthly deficit.
A 62% majority of the Predict Six community correctly anticipated the number would exceed the estimate.