Arthur and Bertha came and went, and the Atlantic still has no hurricane in 2026. Will the first one form before Aug 31?

The Atlantic basin went the entire 2026 season through August 31 without producing a single hurricane, an unusually long wait by modern standards. Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the year but neither strengthened past tropical-storm intensity, and forecasters noted the delay was approaching the record for latest first hurricane, September 11, set in the satellite era that began in 1966. The average date for a season's first hurricane is July 27, so 2026 ran roughly five weeks behind normal. Meteorologists attributed the quiet stretch to hostile atmospheric conditions, including strong wind shear and dry, sinking air over key parts of the tropical Atlantic tied to an intensifying El Nino pattern, which suppressed the thunderstorm clusters that typically organize into hurricanes. As August closed, Tropical Storm Edouard developed in the Gulf of Mexico and headed toward Texas and Louisiana, but it too remained below hurricane strength through the month's end. The community leaned toward "no" on this question, with only 35% predicting a hurricane would form before August 31, and that majority proved correct. The historically slow start left forecasters and coastal residents watching September, traditionally the peak of hurricane season, for the first hurricane of the year.