Ozempic's underlying hormone has never won a Nobel. Will GLP-1 research take the Medicine prize when it's announced Oct 5?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 12 predictions cast.
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded on October 5 to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics, not for GLP-1 research tied to the hormone underlying drugs like Ozempic. The Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm cited the trio's work beginning in the early 1990s, when Hegemann and Nagel identified channelrhodopsin, a light-sensitive protein in algae, and Deisseroth later introduced the gene into neurons, enabling scientists to switch specific brain cells on or off with light. The three researchers will share the prize of 12 million Swedish kronor, about $1.2 million.
GLP-1 research, including the work of citation laureate Svetlana Mojsov on the hormone underlying semaglutide, had drawn speculation as a contender given the scientific and commercial impact of drugs like Ozempic, but the hormone has still never won a Nobel.
The Predict Six community was evenly split on this question, with 50% predicting GLP-1 research would take the prize. The result went to optogenetics instead, a now-standard neuroscience tool for selectively controlling neurons, extending a yearslong pattern of GLP-1 research being nominated but passed over by the Nobel committee.