Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 this month, its second-lowest reading ever. Will the final September number land below 48 on Sept 25?

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported a final September 2026 Consumer Sentiment Index reading of 48.1, released September 25. The final figure came in above both the preliminary estimate of 47.8 and the 47.6 consensus forecast compiled by Reuters, meaning it did not fall below the 48.0 threshold in question. The index still marked a four-month low, down from 51.7 in August, as inflation worries and elevated fuel prices weighed on households. The survey's Consumer Expectations component fell 10.4 percent to 46.3, while the Current Economic Conditions gauge slipped 1.9 percent to 50.9. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent in August, the steepest such reading since June. University of Michigan economists tied the deterioration to concerns that re-escalating trade disputes and rising prices could spread further through the economy ahead of the midterms. Despite the gloomy underlying data, a small upward revision between the preliminary and final readings kept the index just above the 48 mark. The prediction community had leaned heavily toward "yes" at 79 percent, expecting the final number to land below 48, making this one of the larger community misses in recent weeks.