Fewer than 10 ships a day are transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Will more than 30 pass in a single day before Aug 14?

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below the 30-vessels-a-day threshold through the question's Aug. 14, 2026 deadline. Reuters reported that traffic fell to just six vessels on Monday, Aug. 10, 2026, compared with a 10-day average of about 11 vessels a day, as hopes faded for a U.S.-Iran peace deal; ship-tracking data from Kpler showed only four inbound and two outbound vessels that day, far short of the pre-crisis norm of roughly 73 to 130 transits daily. The disruption stemmed from the broader 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, which began after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, and included a U.S. naval effort to redirect and inspect merchant ships bound for Iranian ports, discouraging routine transits even after a short-lived ceasefire in June. Traffic had briefly picked up in late July — Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded 84 transits during the week of July 27-Aug. 2, up from 45 the prior week — but stayed well under 30 ships in any single day and fell further in early August. The community unanimously forecast the 30-ship threshold would be exceeded (100% yes), but traffic stayed well below that level through the deadline, and the question resolved no.