Netflix guided to $12.86 billion in third-quarter revenue. Will it top $12.9 billion when it reports Oct 20?

Netflix reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of roughly $12.87 billion, in line with its own forecast but just short of the $12.9 billion mark in this question, according to CNBC and the Star. Revenue rose about 12% year over year, or 11% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis.

The narrow miss on revenue came even as other metrics were strong: operating income rose 37% to about $4.46 billion, lifting operating margin to 34.6% from 28.2% a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.87 beat the roughly $0.82 analyst consensus. The bigger story in the release was forward guidance. Netflix lowered its full-year 2026 advertising-revenue outlook to about $2.7 billion from roughly $3 billion and guided fourth-quarter EPS below expectations, which outweighed the in-line revenue print and sent shares down about 5% in the following session.

Predict Six's community voted 89% yes on this question, expecting Netflix to clear $12.9 billion, but the company's reported revenue came in just under that bar, one of the larger gaps between community sentiment and the eventual outcome among today's resolutions.