Israel ordered Britain's East Jerusalem consulate shut by Oct 8. Will the UK expel any Israeli diplomats by Oct 16?
67% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 9 predictions cast.
Israel's October 8 deadline to shut Britain's consulate in East Jerusalem passed without the United Kingdom expelling any Israeli diplomats. Israel had ordered the consulate closed in retaliation for UK sanctions tied to the Gaza war; its foreign minister said the consul general and roughly 20 staff departed Israel on October 8, while a small team stayed on under a rebranded "UK Mission, Jerusalem" rather than a full shutdown. In the lead-up, Israeli media reported London had privately warned it could expel up to 27 Israeli diplomats, one for each British staffer affected, if the closure went ahead. Reuters-sourced reporting said any UK retaliation likely would not come before Israel's October 27 election, if at all, and British officials, including Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, emphasized the mission's functions would continue in reduced form rather than describing any expulsion plan. No UK expulsion followed by October 16. The Predict Six community largely anticipated this outcome, with only a third expecting expulsions by that date, correctly reading the dispute as more likely to settle into a reduced-presence standoff than escalate into reciprocal expulsions while Israel's own election approached.