Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles last quarter. Will its third-quarter total top 460,000 when it reports by Oct 5?
67% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 12 predictions cast.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, the company reported on October 2, comfortably clearing the 460,000 threshold and beating Wall Street's consensus estimate of roughly 461,100, according to StreetAccount. The total included 478,237 Model 3/Y deliveries and 8,295 deliveries of other models, with more than 464,000 vehicles produced during the quarter. The result marked a sequential increase from the 480,126 vehicles delivered in the second quarter, though it was down about 2% year-over-year from the 497,099 deliveries recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Tesla shares rose roughly 2% following the report.
The beat came despite earlier analyst warnings, including a Goldman Sachs note, about softening demand and the scheduled expiration of U.S. EV tax credits, which some had expected to pull deliveries forward into prior quarters and depress the September-quarter total. Instead, Tesla's pricing and logistics adjustments kept volumes above expectations.
The Predict Six community predicted this correctly, with 67% forecasting deliveries above 460,000, continuing a pattern in 2026 of Tesla outperforming delivery estimates that had been cut over demand concerns.