Category 5 Polo is throwing 180 mph winds off Mexico. Will it come ashore as a hurricane by Oct 1?
55% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 11 predictions cast.
Hurricane Polo made landfall in Mexico's Baja California Sur early Tuesday, September 29, 2026, coming ashore just south of Las Barrancas, about 80 miles north of Cabo San Lazaro, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph as a Category 2 storm. Polo had peaked offshore at Category 5 strength with winds near 180 mph before weakening as it approached the coast, a common pattern as storms encounter cooler water and increased wind shear near landfall. The storm toppled trees, flooded coastal streets, and prompted roughly 700 people to take shelter, though authorities reported no deaths or serious damage. Polo dropped 6 to 12 inches of rain on Baja California Sur before crossing the Gulf of California and making a second landfall on Mexico's mainland near Guaymas as a Category 1 hurricane. Forecasters had warned of "life-threatening" winds and dangerous surf in the days before landfall. Polo's remnants later contributed to flooding and water rescues in the U.S. Southwest, including Arizona. The storm came ashore as a hurricane before the October 1 deadline, resolving the market "Yes." The prediction-market community, which gave "Yes" a 55% probability, was correct.