Datafolha puts Lula at 40% before Brazil's Oct 4 vote. Will he clear 45% in the first round?
67% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 9 predictions cast.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 45.16% of the vote in the Oct. 4 first round of Brazil's presidential election, clearing the 45% threshold this question tracked. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of him with 47.03%, a result that defied pre-election polling, most of which had shown Lula with a modest lead. Because neither candidate reached the outright majority needed to win in the first round, the two advance to an Oct. 25 runoff.
Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing reflected a late consolidation of right-leaning and undecided voters behind his candidacy, while Lula's coalition held up well enough to clear the 45% mark even while trailing in the overall count. The outcome reversed the order projected by most surveys heading into the vote, which had Lula finishing first, and left Bolsonaro with an edge heading into the second round.
The Predict Six community put only 33% odds on Lula clearing 45%, expecting him to fall short of that specific threshold. He exceeded it, making the community's call wrong on this question even though the broader expectation of a close, unresolved race proved accurate.