Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 48-45 in Michigan's polling average. Will he win the Senate seat on Nov 3?
64% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 11 predictions cast.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's open U.S. Senate race, with the Associated Press calling the contest at 2:27 a.m. Eastern on November 4, 2026, and CBS News and other outlets projecting the same result. With more than two-thirds of votes counted, El-Sayed led roughly 52% to 46%, according to the Detroit News, a wider margin than the 48-45 polling-average lead cited ahead of the election.
El-Sayed, a physician and former Michigan health director, had narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary before facing Rogers, a former congressman, for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers and allied outside groups outspent El-Sayed's side by roughly three to two, but Democratic turnout in the midterms and El-Sayed's coalition proved decisive. El-Sayed will become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.
The Predict Six community leaned toward this outcome, with 64% forecasting an El-Sayed win, consistent with the eventual result.