Will the judge rule in favor of Trump's emergency injunction to stop payment to E. Jean Carroll?
87% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 30 predictions cast.
On July 8-9, 2026, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan ordered the release of approximately $5.8 million in escrowed funds to E. Jean Carroll, rejecting Donald Trump's bid to keep the payment on hold. Hours later, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals denied Trump's emergency motion for an administrative stay, clearing the way for the funds to be released. The rulings mean the judge did not side with Trump's request to halt payment; both the district court and the appellate court ruled against the emergency injunction he sought.
The funds stemmed from the earlier Carroll v. Trump defamation verdict, which Trump had appealed while the money remained in escrow pending review. Courts found no sufficient legal basis to further delay release of the judgment funds once the relevant appellate proceedings had run their course, and Trump's request for emergency intervention did not meet the standard required for a stay.
Community forecasters on this question largely anticipated this outcome: only 13 percent predicted "yes" (that the judge would rule in Trump's favor) across 30 votes, meaning roughly 87 percent correctly leaned toward "no." The market therefore priced this event with reasonable accuracy ahead of the rulings.
Sources: NBC News (July 9, 2026) and CNBC (July 8, 2026) reported on the release order and the appellate denial of the stay.