Analysts see $2.29 a share. Will Target beat that when it reports Aug 19?

Target reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings of $4.11 per share on both a GAAP and adjusted basis, sharply above the roughly $2.29-$2.33 per-share analyst consensus tracked ahead of the Aug. 19 report, a beat of more than $1.80 a share. Net sales rose 5.3% to $26.5 billion, also topping estimates.

A large portion of the outperformance came from $994 million in pretax tariff refunds under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which added $1.65 per share and boosted gross and operating margins; Target said earnings excluding that one-time benefit were still roughly 20% higher than a year earlier. Comparable sales climbed 3.8%, well above the 2.4% Wall Street estimate, with digital comparable sales up 8.7% as same-day delivery grew more than 25%, pointing to improved traffic and merchandising execution beyond the tariff windfall.

Target raised its full-year GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance to $9.90-$10.90 from $7.50-$8.50 and lifted its full-year net sales growth outlook by a percentage point to about 5%. Shares dipped in premarket trading amid concern that much of the beat was tied to the one-time tariff refund, before recovering as investors weighed the stronger underlying sales trends. The prediction-market community had assigned Target a 75% probability of beating the $2.29 estimate, correctly anticipating the outcome.