With Strait of Hormuz now opening, will ave price of regular gas fall from $3.97 to under $3.75 by 6/26?

The national average price for regular gasoline remained at $3.90 per gallon as of June 26, 2026, according to AAA data, staying well above the $3.75 threshold the question proposed. While the Strait of Hormuz reopening had removed a significant geopolitical supply risk that had pressed prices higher in preceding weeks, the relief had not yet fully passed through to consumers at the pump by the resolution date.

Crude oil price declines typically take several weeks to translate into retail gasoline price changes, as crude must be refined, transported, and distributed before reaching stations. Summer driving demand — which is near its annual seasonal peak in late June — further offset any downward pressure from improved supply. The national average had stood at approximately $3.97 per gallon when the question was set, meaning prices had declined modestly but only by about seven cents, not the 22-cent drop needed to breach $3.75. Community members were split nearly evenly (45% yes), reflecting reasonable uncertainty about the speed of oil-market pass-through to consumer prices. The broader trajectory pointed toward gradual easing, but the question's one-week window proved too short for prices to close that gap.