Will Copernicus report that July 2026 was the warmest July on record in its bulletin by August 10?

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) released its July 2026 monthly bulletin on August 10, 2026, reporting that July 2026 was not the warmest July on record for global surface air temperature. C3S found the global average surface air temperature for July 2026 was 16.90 degrees Celsius, statistically tied with July 2024 (within 0.01 degrees) for second place, behind the outright record set in July 2023, when the global average reached 16.95 degrees Celsius. The bulletin's headline finding concerned oceans, not overall air temperature: average sea surface temperature across the extra-polar oceans reached 20.96 degrees Celsius in July 2026, the highest for any July on record, surpassing the previous July high of 20.89 degrees set in 2023, a rise partly attributed to developing El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Copernicus also reported that Western Europe experienced its warmest June-July period on record, with France posting its warmest July and Spain its joint warmest, amid dryness and heat that fueled extensive wildfires across southwestern Europe. Because the record was set in ocean surface temperature and regional European heat rather than in overall global surface air temperature, Copernicus did not report July 2026 as the warmest July on record in its August 10 bulletin. The market's community forecast, which placed 67 percent probability on YES, resolved incorrectly.