Will Donald Trump's approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average be below 40% on August 10?
100% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin approval average tracked Donald Trump's job approval below 40 percent through the weeks leading into August 10, 2026, a level pollsters described as historically weak for a president at this stage of a term. Forbes reported on July 27, 2026, that a string of surveys, including CBS News/YouGov (39 percent) and Washington Post/Ipsos (37 percent), placed Trump's approval under 40 percent, with disapproval topping 60 percent in several polls. By early August, aggregator estimates including Silver's showed approval in the high 30s with net approval near a second-term low; U.S. News reported August 3, 2026, that state-level approval numbers also looked weak roughly three months before the midterms. Pollsters and analysts attributed the decline to several compounding factors: the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, which a majority of voters opposed, and its economic fallout, including gasoline prices climbing above four dollars a gallon; persistent inflation and cost-of-living strain; and disputed labor-market data after federal officials revised down job-creation figures and Trump dismissed the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner following a weak jobs report. The Predict Six community, voting unanimously (2 votes) for YES, correctly anticipated that the Silver Bulletin average would remain below 40 percent on August 10.