Greg Abbott led his Democratic challenger by four points in an Emerson poll. Will he win a fifth term by more than five on Nov 3?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 0 predictions cast.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott lost his bid for reelection outright on Nov. 3, 2026, making the question of whether he would win by more than five points moot: Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated him, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Texas in more than three decades, according to the Texas Tribune and Associated Press wire coverage. Early returns had Hinojosa leading roughly 57% to Abbott's 41.7% before final counts were certified.
The result reversed months of polling that had shown Abbott ahead, including an Emerson College survey that had him up by four points shortly before Election Day. Hinojosa's campaign gained late momentum as independents broke heavily in her favor; one late-October poll found independents favoring her by 11 points. The upset came as part of a broader Democratic wave that night, which also flipped control of the U.S. Senate and several other Texas and national races.
Abbott conceded on election night, ending a long run of Republican control of the Texas governor's mansion.
The Predict Six community split evenly on this specific question, with 50% expecting Abbott to win by more than five points, but the premise never materialized, since Abbott did not win reelection at all.