Analysts cut their Tesla forecast to 44 cents a share. Will its adjusted earnings top that on Oct 21?
73% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 11 predictions cast.
Tesla reported third-quarter 2026 results after market close on Oct. 21, posting non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted earnings per share of $0.48, above the roughly 44-cent analyst consensus cited in this question, though down from $0.50 a year earlier, according to Electrek and DriveTeslaCanada. Revenue was about $28.05 billion, roughly flat year over year and in line with the $28.06 billion Wall Street expected.
On a GAAP basis, profit fell more sharply: net income dropped 43% to $787 million, and operating margin slipped to 2.6%, as spending on AI projects and the Optimus robot program outpaced gross-profit growth. Gross margin still improved to 19.6%, up 160 basis points from a year earlier, and the company generated $1.53 billion in free cash flow, above expectations. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, above delivery-consensus estimates despite a slight year-over-year decline, and said its FSD (Supervised) subscriber base grew 67% to 1.74 million.
Predict Six's community voted 73% yes on this question, correctly anticipating that Tesla's adjusted earnings would clear the 44-cent bar.