Byron Donalds carries Trump's endorsement into Tuesday's vote. Will he clear 75% in Florida's Republican primary for governor?
100% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 3 predictions cast.
Rep. Byron Donalds won Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on Aug. 18, 2026, with the Associated Press calling the race in his favor, but he fell well short of the 75% threshold in the question. With the vast majority of precincts reporting, Donalds took roughly 48% of the vote, according to Bloomberg. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins finished second with about 25%, and businessman James Fishback took roughly 10%, with several other candidates splitting the remainder.
Despite President Trump's early and prominent endorsement, Donalds faced a genuinely contested field: Collins, the sitting lieutenant governor, and Fishback, an insurgent populist who campaigned aggressively against Donalds throughout the race, each drew meaningful shares of primary voters. Trump's backing helped Donalds build a commanding plurality but did not consolidate the Republican electorate to the near-unanimous level the 75% threshold would have required.
Donalds, who has represented southwest Florida in Congress since 2021, advances to the November general election against Democratic nominee and former Rep. David Jolly, with a chance to become Florida's first Black governor. The prediction market's community forecast assigned 0% probability to Donalds clearing 75%, correctly anticipating the outcome.