Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready to stop striking Russian refineries. Will Moscow publicly agree to an energy ceasefire before Oct 1?
69% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 13 predictions cast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 1, 2026, rejected a proposal for a mutual ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure, telling the Valdai Discussion Club forum in Moscow that such an arrangement made no sense. Asked directly whether that meant no, Putin replied, "Yes, no." He argued that halting Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries would not meaningfully benefit Moscow, since Western sanctions already prevented Russian petroleum products from reaching global markets normally. The remarks followed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement on September 16 that Kyiv was ready to stop striking Russian refineries if Moscow reciprocated by halting attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, an offer Russia had not accepted at the time. The exchange played out against a backdrop of continued Russian aerial bombardment of Ukraine's power infrastructure ahead of winter, and separate pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Ukraine to scale back refinery strikes he linked to rising diesel prices. No mutual energy ceasefire had been reached by October 1. Prediction-market bettors had given only a 31 percent chance that Russia would agree, meaning the majority "No" prediction proved correct.