The Atlantic still has no hurricane, its slowest start in almost 40 years. Will the season's first one form before Sept 12?
58% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 19 predictions cast.
No hurricane had formed in the Atlantic by September 12, 2026, setting a record for the latest start to hurricane activity in the satellite era, which began in 1966. Only five named tropical storms had formed by that point in the season, compared with a historical average of nine tropical storms and four hurricanes by mid-September. The previous record for latest first hurricane, September 11, was set in 2002 and matched in 2013.
Meteorologists attributed the unusually quiet stretch to a strengthening El Nino pattern, which produced strong upper-level wind shear across the Caribbean and the Atlantic's main storm-development region, tearing apart tropical systems before they could organize into hurricanes.
The prediction-market community had put 42% odds on the season's first hurricane forming before September 12, and the majority view proved correct: none had formed. The record-setting delay came during what is normally the peak weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and forecasters noted that a slow start does not rule out a burst of activity later, since El Nino's suppressing effects can weaken as the season progresses.