Core PCE inflation ran 3.3% in July and the Fed hiked anyway. Does the Sept 30 print for August come in above 3.3%?

The Commerce Department reported on September 30, 2026, that the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.0 percent year over year in August, down from July's 3.3 percent reading and below the 3.3 percent economists had forecast, according to CNBC. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2 percent, slightly below the 0.3 percent expected. The cooler-than-anticipated print came even though the Fed had raised interest rates in July despite the elevated July reading, a move that had drawn criticism from officials worried about persistent price pressure. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also revised its methodology for measuring certain components, including legal services, software and portfolio management fees, which contributed to the lower figure.

Economists said the data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at its October meeting rather than tighten further. The community got this one wrong: 70 percent of forecasters expected the August print to come in above July's 3.3 percent, but inflation instead decelerated, reversing the trend that had prompted the earlier rate increase.