No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Will James Talarico beat Ken Paxton on Nov 3?

Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in Texas's U.S. Senate race, with the Associated Press calling the contest for Talarico around 10:04 p.m. CT on November 3, 2026. Early returns showed Talarico ahead by a wide margin; unofficial Texas Secretary of State tallies later settled near 55% for Talarico as more votes were counted. Paxton, the state's attorney general, conceded roughly 20 minutes after the AP's call.

The outcome ended a 32-year streak in which no Democrat had won statewide office in Texas, marking the party's first U.S. Senate win in the state since 1988. Paxton had emerged from a bruising May 26 Republican primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, winning that contest by 28 points after a late Trump endorsement, but he carried long-running securities-fraud charges and a 2023 impeachment trial into the general election, issues Democrats emphasized throughout the fall campaign.

Prediction market participants leaned against this outcome heading into Election Day: the community's recorded consensus put only 44% odds on a Talarico win, meaning the market as a whole missed the result. Talarico, a state representative from Austin, becomes the first Democrat to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate in nearly four decades.