Will US Consumer Credit exceed the consensus forecast when the numbers are reported on Wed?
68% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 34 predictions cast.
The Federal Reserve's G.19 consumer credit report, released Wednesday, July 8, 2026, showed total consumer credit contracted by roughly $0.18 billion in May, well below the consensus forecast of about $17.1 billion in growth. Bloomberg described it as the largest unexpected drop in consumer borrowing since 2024. The reading followed an upwardly revised $20.82 billion gain in April.
The shortfall was concentrated in revolving credit, which includes credit card balances; that category contracted at an annualized rate of roughly 4.7%, signaling households pulling back on short-term borrowing. Nonrevolving credit, covering auto and student loans, kept growing modestly, up about 1.6% annualized. Coverage tied the pullback to softening consumer sentiment and tighter household budgets amid persistent price pressures earlier in the year.
The community leaned strongly toward "yes" at 68%, expecting consumer credit to beat the forecast, but the report undershot expectations by a wide margin, and the question resolved no. The data added to a run of soft economic readings in early July and fed into market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut later in the year.