Will Harriet Hageman clear 80% in Wyoming's Republican Senate primary on Aug 18?
100% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
Rep. Harriet Hageman won Wyoming's Republican U.S. Senate primary on Aug. 18, 2026, but fell well short of 80 percent, taking roughly 64.9 percent of the vote (83,794 votes with 99 percent counted) in a five-candidate field. Businessman Sam Mead finished a distant second with about 27.8 percent, while three other Republicans — Jimmy Skovgard, Jill Edwards and John Holtz — split the remainder in single digits.
Hageman, endorsed by President Trump and seeking to succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, benefited from strong name recognition as Wyoming's at-large House member, but Mead's showing was large enough to keep her under the 80 percent threshold the market required. Mead ran a modestly resourced but active campaign that drew a meaningful protest vote from Republicans wary of Hageman's incumbency, denying her the lopsided landslide some had anticipated.
Hageman advances to face Democrat James Byrd, a former state representative, in the general election for the seat. The prediction market's community forecast had placed the "Yes" outcome at 100 percent on just two votes, and that consensus proved incorrect once the actual returns showed Hageman finishing in the mid-60s rather than above 80 percent.