Will NOAA rank July 2026 among the three warmest Julys on record for the Lower 48?
100% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed that July 2026 was the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States, surpassing the top-three threshold this question asked about. The National Centers for Environmental Information reported a national average temperature of 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit, 3.3 degrees above the 20th-century average, eclipsing the previous record Julys of 1936 and 2012.
Persistent heat domes settled over large portions of the country through the month, driving prolonged and intense heat waves. The Northeast was especially affected, with cities including Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington experiencing extended stretches of extreme heat. NOAA estimated the heat waves affected more than 185 million people nationwide.
The record fits a broader pattern of accelerating summer heat extremes across the United States in recent years, with successive Julys and Augusts increasingly challenging or breaking historical marks set in the mid-20th century and 2010s.
The community prediction on this question was unanimous: both recorded votes forecast a "yes" outcome, giving a 100 percent community-predicted probability that July 2026 would rank among the three warmest Julys on record. The outcome not only met but exceeded that threshold, with July 2026 becoming the single hottest month ever recorded for the contiguous United States.