U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July. Will they rise in August when the Census Bureau reports on Sept 16?
62% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 16 predictions cast.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Sept. 16, 2026, that U.S. retail and food services sales rose 1.2% in August from July, beating economists' forecast of a 0.8% rebound and marking the largest monthly gain since March. The increase followed a revised 0.5% decline in July, the first monthly drop in nine months.
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services and feed most directly into GDP calculations, jumped 1.4% in August. General merchandise stores sales rose 0.7% from July, while electronics and appliance stores climbed 1.6%, according to the Census Bureau's advance monthly report.
The rebound came even as consumers voiced continued unease about the economy amid rising housing and gas costs. Reporting from the Washington Post noted the bounce-back in spending occurred despite that persistent wariness, with the data outpacing the more cautious mood reflected in consumer sentiment surveys.
The Predict Six community leaned toward another weak reading, with only 38% forecasting a rise after July's decline. The stronger-than-expected August data broke that streak, meaning most forecasters underestimated the resilience of consumer spending that month.