Will the new D Senate candidate in Maine, Troy Jackson, lead Susan Collins in the RCP polls on Aug 15?
61% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 38 predictions cast.
Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins in RealClearPolling's polling average heading into mid-August 2026, with the aggregate showing Jackson roughly 2 points ahead of the incumbent. Individual surveys backed the trend: a Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 had Jackson leading 48%-46%, and a University of New Hampshire poll found him ahead 49%-46%. Jackson, the former Maine Senate president, became the Democratic Party's standard-bearer after original candidate Graham Platner withdrew from the race amid misconduct allegations. Collins, seeking re-election as the only Republican senator representing a state Democrats have carried in recent presidential elections, is contesting one of the cycle's most closely watched Senate races. Republicans have noted that Collins trailed by similar margins at this stage of her 2020 re-election bid before ultimately winning, framing the current numbers as within historical range rather than decisive. The race is widely viewed as pivotal to Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate majority in November. Community forecasters correctly anticipated this outcome, with 61% predicting Jackson would be ahead of Collins in the RealClearPolling average on Aug. 15.