No Democrat has won a Texas governor's race since 1990. Can Gina Hinojosa unseat Greg Abbott on Nov 3?
71% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 7 predictions cast.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican Governor Greg Abbott in Texas's gubernatorial race, with the Associated Press calling the contest for Hinojosa on the night of November 3, 2026. Abbott, who was seeking an unprecedented fourth term, conceded that evening, saying mathematically he could not win. Vote-count estimates varied slightly by outlet and hour, but most put Hinojosa's final share in the low-to-mid 50s, with a margin over Abbott of roughly 5 to 7 points.
Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin, campaigned on affordability and public-school funding, while Abbott's campaign emphasized border security and his record over more than a decade in office. Her win ended the longest active gubernatorial winning streak for either party in Texas: no Democrat had won the governor's office since Ann Richards in 1990, a roughly 36-year Republican hold that this result broke.
Hinojosa is set to be sworn in as the first Latina governor of Texas and the state's first Democratic governor since Richards left office in 1995. The prediction market leaned the other way heading into Election Day, with only 29% of recorded votes favoring a Hinojosa win, making this one of the larger misses among the night's Texas contests.