Kevin Warsh says inflation is still too high. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.29%. Will it close above 4.25% on Sept 3?
81% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 16 predictions cast.
The two-year Treasury yield closed above 4.25% on Sept. 3, 2026, extending a rise that began after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in which he said the central bank still had "work to do" to bring inflation down. The policy-sensitive yield jumped more than a dozen basis points immediately after the speech and traded near its highest level since late July in the days that followed. Warsh's comments raised the market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing hike odds climbing from roughly 35% to above 60% within days.
The result matched the market's yes outcome, and the community correctly anticipated it, with 81% predicting yes. The move reflected a broader repricing across short-dated Treasurys as investors weighed a hawkish new Fed chair against recent economic data, including an August jobs report that beat expectations, complicating the outlook for the Fed's next move and keeping short-term rates elevated heading into the September policy meeting.