Trump endorsed her; the state party didn't. Will Megan Degenfelder win Wyoming's Republican primary for governor Aug 18?
52% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 25 predictions cast.
Wyoming state Sen. Eric Barlow won the Republican gubernatorial primary on Aug. 18, 2026, defeating Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder and retired Marine Corps officer Brent Bien. With all precincts counted, Barlow took 45.0% (58,820 votes) to Degenfelder's 29.7% (38,739) and Bien's 23.6% (30,843), out of roughly 130,500 ballots cast; the Associated Press called the race for Barlow around 8:54 p.m. local time.
Degenfelder had campaigned as the frontrunner after receiving what President Trump called a "complete and total" endorsement, including Truth Social posts, recorded video messages and a telephone town hall on her behalf. However, the Wyoming Republican Party's leadership committee had separately voted 34-4, with 13 abstentions, in July to endorse Bien, breaking from the party's usual practice of staying neutral in contested primaries — a split between the national and state GOP that left Degenfelder without the local organizational backing that often matters in low-turnout statewide primaries.
Barlow's victory added to a string of 2026 gubernatorial primaries in which Trump-endorsed candidates fell short. The community prediction on this question stood at 48% Yes, reflecting a near-even split among forecasters that leaned only slightly toward the outcome that ultimately did not occur.