Will NOAA lower its 2026 Atlantic named-storm forecast in its updated seasonal outlook before Friday, August 14?
59% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 32 predictions cast.
NOAA lowered its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in an updated outlook issued Aug. 6, 2026, projecting seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes, according to Fox Weather and public radio outlet WLRN. Each range moved down by one from NOAA's prior outlook. The agency also raised its confidence in a below-normal season, from 55% to 75% likelihood, citing a strengthening El Nino pattern in the Pacific that forecasters said would continue suppressing tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through the rest of the season, which runs through Nov. 30. As of the update, the 2026 season had produced two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues its initial seasonal Atlantic outlook in May and revises it in early August once El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions and sea-surface temperature patterns become clearer, and this marked the second downward revision of the 2026 numbers. The community badly misjudged this question: only 41% of votes correctly predicted NOAA would lower the forecast before Aug. 14, while a majority expected the numbers to hold steady or increase.