Will the Fed hold interest rates steady at their next meeting that starts on June 17?

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12–0, on June 17, 2026, to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The decision marked the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change and came amid continued uncertainty around inflation, the Iran conflict, and elevated energy prices.

The June meeting was the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, whom President Trump appointed as Fed chair. The FOMC statement dropped earlier language signaling a bias toward future rate cuts, and the accompanying economic projections shifted notably: nine officials now forecast at least one rate hike in 2026, while the projected timeline for any reductions was pushed into 2027 and 2028. Rising energy prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East were cited as a key inflation concern driving the more hawkish outlook.

While the hold itself came as no surprise — 83 percent of Predict Six participants correctly predicted it — the shift in the Fed’s dot plot from a cut-leaning posture to a potential-hike posture caught many market participants off guard. Markets moved sharply on the guidance change, with yields rising and rate-sensitive equities declining following the 2 p.m. Eastern announcement.