Annual inflation ran 3.4% in August. Will September's CPI print land at 3.6% or higher on Oct 14?
62% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 8 predictions cast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 14 that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in September, up from August's 3.4% annual rate and above the 3.6% threshold in question. The monthly index climbed 0.6%, driven largely by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices, which accounted for more than half of the month's increase. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year, slightly above the 2.5% analysts had forecast.
The acceleration reflected a run-up in energy costs tied to tighter global fuel supplies heading into autumn, compounding price pressure that had already been building through the summer. Economists said the hotter-than-expected print complicated the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path, since persistent above-target inflation leaves policymakers less room to ease. Equity markets reacted immediately, with major indexes falling the day of the release as investors recalibrated monetary policy expectations.
The community had leaned toward a cooler reading, with only 38% of voters predicting CPI would land at 3.6% or higher. The actual 3.7% print confirmed the "yes" outcome, marking a second straight month of accelerating headline inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting.